Update 2: Woolmer was strangled. The world cup and cricket comes under a shadow.

Update: Cricinfo is reporting breaking news on Woolmer.

Pervez Mir, the Pakistan Cricket Board spokesman, told AFP: “The police suspect that Woolmer may have been murdered. They have started an investigation.”

A lot of people said to me after hearing the news of Woolmer’s death that cricket is just a game. However, with so much money involved in the game, cricket is far more than that today as is most professional sport. Modern sports generates so much money and provides employment to so many people, not just the sportsmen playing the game. It will be a sad day for cricket if Woolmer was indeed murdered regardless of who did it.

*****

Bob Woolmer’s death has come as a huge shock. As a keen follower of South African cricket in the 90s, I had the opportunity to see how brilliant Woolmer’s cricketing mind was. Cricket is a game which has plenty of room for strategy and innovations if some one is creative. Cricket suited Woolmer perfectly in this regard. He brought innovations and thought about the game with a modern perspective for which he was widely regarded as the best coach in the world.

As a coach he had success with Warwickshire county club and then reached great heights with South Africa. Australia has been the best cricket team in the world for what now seems an eternity. However, for a period in the 90s - 1996-99, South Africa had the best one day side in the world. No small credit for that goes to Bob Woolmer. Woolmer always had that new point of view no one could have thought about and it was evident every where - whether it was team strategies, field placements or team compositions.

All rounders and lower order batsmen started getting a new meaning in international cricket. South African lower order batting would have guys like Shaun Pollock, Lance Klusener, Nicky Boje. Even Pat Symcox made runs and was contributing to the team apart from his bowling. I remember a match versus Australia where Woolmer opened with Lance Klusener and brought Pat Symcox in at number 3. Klusener made 92 and Symcox made 26. South Africa ended up with 301 and won comfortably in the end. That’s just one match which shows how brilliant Woolmer was.

Many people suggested that Woolmer shouldn’t coach Pakistan but he followed his beliefs. Not that long ago, the team was progressing exceedingly well. Woolmer was creating depth in the batting and bringing in more options for the team in bowling. Woolmer always had a vision with a team and specific players were backed if it was believed that they could do a job which would add to the over all team strength of the team. So Shahid Afridi was brought back when no one gave him much of a chance. There were many other interesting things done in Pakistan cricket in that phase where they were looking good - things like Shoaib Akhtar being disciplined and then brought back which could extract the best output out of him. In his short time with Pakistan, Woolmer managed to create an attachment in the hearts of the common Pakistan cricket fan just like he had done in South Africa.

In 1999, Woolmer couldn’t win the world cup with South Africa. Pakistan in 2007 was to be Woolmer’s redemption. Sadly, Pakistan cricket went from one low to another in the past months culminating with the exit of Akhtar and Asif from the world cup. Without the bowling spearheads, there was little chance of Pakistan winning the world cup.

First as a player, then as a coach, Woolmer served cricket and added a lot to the game. RIP.

The two upsets will give hope to the minnows in cricket for many years to come. Hope can lead to formation of goals and goals, when aided with proper plan of action, can lead to great things. So 17th April, 2007, has the potential of having many positive effects.

There is another aspect I am wondering about. Pakistan is out of the world cup in the first round and India has a very real chance of following suit. So will this trigger off lowering of following of cricket? Has the lowering of following already started but we just do not notice it yet?

Earlier, people used to follow every ball when India played. Now, many are happy with just following the score. I remember how the Eden Gardens used to be full and you had to pay double the price written on the ticket to watch the game if you didn’t buy your ticket early. However, the last few years have seen lower number of crowds and empty seats - some thing unimaginable earlier.

People will not go on following a sport forever and are not immune to factors like results. Many years ago, hockey enjoyed huge popularity. However, losses and disappointing performances over the years has meant that hockey is a shadow of it’s former self in India. Wins are very crucial for increasing and/or sustaining the popularity of a particular sport in a nation in the long run.

Given the following cricket enjoys, India and Pakistan should produce far more successful cricketers and cricket teams. However, the lack of infrastructure over the years has meant that talent cannot be tapped or honed properly. 17th March should be a warning sign for the authorities in India and Pakistan to get their act together and chart out a proper plan for cricket for the people wont always keep following, the sponsors won’t always keep coming and the money won’t always keep flowing.

The bubble can indeed burst.

Marlon Samuels is arguably the most talented batsman to emerge out of the West Indies in recent times. He is very stylish but adds a lot of substance along with it because of the talent he possesses - the perfect package whether you are a marketing man, a general fan or a purist who likes to see quality out there on the field.

At 26, Samuels can be termed an under achiever. He will play the most beautiful shots and deceive you into believing that you are in for watching some thing special before getting himself out. The test and one day averages of 28 and 30 respectively do not do his talent justice. In this, he has been following the path of V.V.S. Laxman and Carl Hooper.

However the good part is that he has time on his hand and seems to have finally turned the corner. The 63 off 70 balls in the inaugral world cup match was not out of the blue. In the 2006/07 season, Samuels has an average of 38 from 19 matches. It gets better if we consider only 2007 - an average of 51 from 5 matches which includes 3 fifties.

Crisis brings out the best in the mentally strong characters and the match fixing cloud may be a trigger for him to do greater things. With the likes of Bravo and Dinesh Ramdin, Samuels represents a core group of young cricketers who make you feel optimistic regarding West Indies cricket. They seem to have a fire in the belly which can transform the talented and gifted to performers on the world stage.

The world cup is just hours away. So what is the blogosphere and internet in general talking?

House of Honcho has a nice world cup preview.

If I had to get off the fence, Aus would be my pick to win, but at $3.20 on Betfair no thank you. I expect the South Africans to somehow stuff it up again, and if I didn’t have to take conditions into account, Sri Lanka is in my mind the main danger. India will leak too many runs in the field, and the remaining four teams who are all paying over $10 are a little over-priced as despite question marks over their consistency, all they have to do is win enough games to qualify for the semis and then win 2 games on the trot. Any of the eight sides can do that.

Vishnu on the other hand asks us not to forget the minnows, considering the past record. Given the number of matches minnows play this time, a few upsets are very much probable.

An astrologer thinks that India will play in the final.

Kalyan is clear regarding his expectations from the world cup and he explains them with strong reason:

I think if the team plays at it best and gets beaten by a better team (ala WC’03) and not panic (ala WC’96) - i would be smiling at the end of the WC campaign - WC in hand or not!

The world cup is being held in the West Indies but you would think it is being held in India if you look at the hype. A world cup road show is being held by google across India. Google also has the world cup venues in google earth.

As a cricket fan, I am hoping that the West Indies reach at least the semis and the world cup heralds a new era for them. I do think that they have the team to be able to reach the semis as well if they play to their potential. Rahul Bhattacharya says it best - rally round the West Indies.

I was thinking that Pakistan has a very good chance this year –good bowlers, very good batsmen, good depth in the XI, Bob Woolmer and a track record of doing quite well in the world cups in recent times if they do not run into India. However, this was before Asif and Akhtar found themselves out of the tournament.

Coming to the actual tournament, round 1 matches versus the minnows are very much like the warm up matches which precede them. Given that the world cup will carry on for nearly 2 months and we will see a marathon of matches, the semi finalists will in all likelihood be those who deserve their spot. My semi finalists, in order - Australia, South Africa, India and West Indies.

Semi-finals –

Australia over West Indies;
South Africa over India

Finals –

Australia over South Africa.

Given the unpredictability of the one day game, the cliché – ‘any of the top 8 teams can reach the semis is very true.

It will be an unprecedented and a huge accomplishment, even by Australian standards, if they do manage to win the world cup for a third consecutive time. The West Indies couldn’t do it in 1983 when they were thwarted by India the current era where one day cricket is more understood by the teams compared to the 70s and 80s, and the game is more competitive on the whole, it would be a much bigger achievement.

Where individuals are concerned, I am looking at Nathan Bracken and Sourav Ganguly to have huge world cups. Bracken has been nothing short of exceptional for Australia in the last few seasons. However, 2007 has been below par for him and he will look to reverse that. Ganguly, on the other hand, has had a tough last couple of years for various reasons. With the 2007 world cup, in all likelihood to be his last, he will look to go out gloriously.

However, given out of the blue performers in the world cup, be it teams (India in ‘83, Pakistan in ‘92, Sri Lanka in ‘96) or players (Gary Gilmour, Geoff Allott), I am not very sure how any prediction can be made with a lot of conviction. So take the above predictions with spoonfulls of salt.

Now, who do you think will win the world cup?

Picture taken by Smither Jones.

Ramesh Powar is a glaring omission from the Indian world cup squad. His stats in his international career so far:

Year M-Wkts-Avg-Eco
2004 2-0-undefined-5.20
2006 14-19-27.15-4.50
2007 2-5-19.00-4.75

So, what has he done wrong?

Kumble has been selected for his experience and that, despite his not that impressive record of late, is understandable. However, there is little logic in selecting 5 fast bowlers. Selecting 3 spinners would have been the right way to go about it.

Even if we play 3 fast bowlers in the XI, why do we need more than 1 reserve fast bowler? Selecting two spinners in the XI on a slower Windies pitch cannot be ruled out. Given that, I would have selected a reserve spinner instead of two reserve fast bowlers.

Sreesanth, for all his promise, has been too expensive (economy rate of 5.75) and I would have gone for Powar instead.

He tries to play too aggressively in one dayers. A strike rate of 96 v 76 may not sound that big a difference but it is actually more than 20 percent more attacking play. That obviously means going out of the areas where Sehwag feels comfortable which means that he plays far more get out shots in one dayers.

Sehwag’s natural game gives him a S/R of 76 while for most players, it would result in a S/R of 40-65. That will give you lower averages in one dayers. This does not mean that Sehwag will not have as many get out shots when he tries to play shots he normally wouldn’t in tests.

Another aspect is that when opening the batting in one dayers, he feels the respnsibility to play shots as soon as possible rather than settling down a bit. If you aren’t adjusted to the bounce of the pitch, there is always a high chance of getting out. Maybe batting in the middle order could be the perfect place for Sehwag. He can play out a few overs and then bat naturally and still play at a strike rate of over 75 - a great option for any team. So a position like number 4 is some thing I wouldn’t have mind trying at. However, he is not reliable/consistent enough and so number 3 seems the better position (some thing like 5 or 6 is too late as he isn’t really a slogger). Dravid’s reliability can be a great asset at 4.

So ideally, (I say ideally because the given is very unlikely) I would have the first five as:

Tendulkar
Ganguly
Sehwag
Dravid
Yuvraj

Sehwag always says that he focuses on playing his natural game in whichever form of cricket he plays. He plays in a systematic way which might appear erratic to a newer watcher of his game. It is true that he plays best when he plays his natural game. It is also true that Sehwag is a rhythm player - a bit like Symonds. On his day, he can be destructive as he has shown so many times.

Again, it is much more evident in tests. 12 50s and 12 100s for Sehwag in tests shows that when he gets going in tests, he goes on to score big. This going on to score runs when he has settled to the bounce of the wicket is not evident in one dayers with only 7 100s compared to 24 50s. The getting out shots trying to play too aggressively which Sehwag does in ODIs is transparent when we look at that stat. He is never at ease in ODIs compared to tests because of the approach he takes in ODIs compared to tests despite seemingly looking the same when he bats in ODIs and tests.

Kesavan is one of my favorite cricket writers. I recommend his new blog and am looking forward to his new book (Men in White). I almost always find myself nodding to whatever Kesavan says. Here too, it is no different and I firmly believe he is right. My thoughts are similar on this and has been for quite a while.

Kesavan says in his latest piece, slow death of Indian cricket:

Most of my son’s classmates find greater pleasure in watching Thierry Henry, a Frenchman who captains a London club, Arsenal, than in watching Rahul Dravid turn out for India. The boys in his class who aren’t fixated on Arsenal are obsessed with Manchester United and someone called Rooney who looks worryingly like an Eighties model skinhead. I could be wrong, my sample could be too small, but I think we’re seeing a shift in the sporting culture of metropolitan Indian schoolboys of a particular class. They’re seceding from international cricket and offering their enthusiasm and loyalty to English league football.

Cricket is no longer the holy sport it once was. We had a half empty stadium at Eden Gardens for India-Windies, even India-South Africa. Cricket has competition now from football not just in the form of EPL but nationally as well. Zee Sports are doing a great job of broadcasting football and there are some very positive steps being taken for the development of the game. Football has strong roots in the country (Bagan-East Bengal sees crowds of over 1,00,000, Goa-Bengal rivalry in the sport is strong) and I do see India improving in due course - upon which the popularity will soar. Then, there are other sports which are being marketed in innovative styles - hockey in the form of PHL, chess is ever so strong among a section and shooting is gaining in profile every day.

A very significant factor is that it is impractical to follow 5 days of test cricket. If some one has 35 hours of free time in a week, he will much rather go on a holiday than sit in front of the tv. Cricket is still a spoilt son because it enjoys monopoly but I see genuine competition because of football - signs of which we are already seeing.

It isn’t a death for Indian cricket though the way I look at it. It is competition which is always a good thing because competition improves standards and gives people kicks in the backs like little else can manage to. Test cricket though it seems, is losing out and will lose out further in this fast paced world - some thing which did not seem to effect the crowds 10 years ago in Indian grounds. As a lover of test cricket and a fellow cricket tragic, I do moan the slow death as well.

Four bowlers is some thing the Indian management might be consdering or might do well to consider. Just a couple of days ago, Chappell mentioned that Tendulkar should bowl more. Ganguly, Sehwag and Tendulkar can definitely fill in 10 overs. We didn’t do too badly in World Cup 2003 playing 7 batsmen.

Another aspect is that when we play Powar, he might add some thing to do tail batting but it would be just that and not much more. He is not some one who is that strong with the bat to rely upon that much. His List A batting average is 18 or some thing after 75 plus matches - not that great.

So, playing 5 bowlers with Pathan and Powar filling in the role of the extra batsman is not a very reliable option. I would go in with 4 bowlers myself even if we do not have Sehwag (he shouldn’t be selected just because he can bowl) with Tendulkar and Ganguly filling in the 5th bowler’s role and Yuvraj Singh bowling where necessary.

Sehwag, Pathan were poor but weren’t dropped till very late and after Pathan was brought back, we might bring back Sehwag as well. The selection committee under More had erred while picking the teams. Indian preparation for the world cup has been left till too late.. We have to resort to try out Uthappa right now and even if he has a few good innings and a few bad ones, we cannot assess his reliability as we would like. Then there is Gambhir of course.

That many players were pretty poor in the last 18 months holds little weight because the team management and selectors were pretty rigid regarding specific players (Ganguly comes to mind instantly as does Kumble) when they should have tried the players who had been too good to ignore in the past or who looked promising enough. Australia rested a few players for the Champions Trophy for instance to get their team right as they approached the world cup.

Now, we have this situation where two players - Pathan is being tried again and Sehwag might be played as well just because we do not know how x y z players are because there isn’t much time to give x y z players a proper run. The Indian selection policies over the past 18 months or so have been a joke. I am blaming the Kiran More lead committee and not the Vengsarkar lead committee here.

The Vengsarkar lead selection committee are fixing the damage as much as possible and have done a good job of it. They brought back players, have tried people (even Jaffer in South Africa was at least an attempt to get things right). Some things have clicked while others haven’t and that is fair enough. What isn’t fair though is that crucial world cup spots like who will open will be decided based on what pans out in the next four games versus Sri Lanka.

It is an emotional roller coaster the youngsters particularly could have done well to do without because such shorter runs harm more than build players. That the moves of the new selection committee seem to be working is a very good sign though and augurs well for India for the world cup. It is a circus Indian cricket would have done well to avoid.