I hope India wins of course. Not very sure it will happen though. There has been very little time between the semi final v Pakistan and the final. It is not the lack of practise which is the issue for me. The emotional and psychological drain is. The semi final would have been taxing emotionally for even the most experienced players. I saw Dhoni, who has generally been coolness personified even during and after games like the IPL final being so excited when India was on the brink of winning. The day after the game, when I woke up, it felt like you would after a night of heavy drinking. And that’s just me. The players would have been much more drained.
As Dhoni said after the game in a press conference, and I believe too, and has been seen countless times, the determining factor in world cups is about peaking. You wonder whether India has already peaked. It is all right to think you will be geared up but some times you want to and yet it does not happen after a game like the India-Pakistan game. I remember the great Australian team not being good at winning dead rubbers against lowly England. It was not because they wouldn’t want to win of course. It is difficult to be charged up after the emotiona drain of winning the Ashes. This is concerning for me.
To sort out this problem, playing some new face is important. It is great Nehra is injured and we get the opportunity to play either Ashwin or Sreesanth for him. Nehra was unlikely to fire any way without support for his swing and so that’s another reason I am glad he is out. I was a huge fan of Nehra and he had an unfulfilled career after injuries plagued him and though he bowled exceptionally well in the last game, I am not sure how long he will last. India might want to take him to the tough English tour for his swing and experience maximum.
Coming back to the final, the only aspect of comfort is the Sri Lankan lower middle order with Samaraweera and Chamara Silva is very weak and Sri Lanka may just not be strong enough for an Indian team which has got it’s balance right with Yuvraj bowling. The Sri Lankan ‘3′ for mine is exceptionally strong though and that is leaving Jayawardene. Tharanga wasn’t rated highly not that long ago but he has matured and developed really well. He knows his game now and 11 ODI centuries after 120 games is a fair effort by any standard. Dilshan is a tough cookie as well and we know Sangakarra is world class. I would be tempted to play Perera v India as he is a fine promising pace man who might trouble the Indians more than say Mendis. The only aspect to consider is whether the lack of much experience might be a problem.
India has been a poor finisher though that problem seems resolved now with Raina back. Sri Lanka on the other hand is exceptional while bowling in the death. In a recent world cup match, Sri Lanka bowled yorker in 40 percent of their deliveries in the death (Simon Hughes tweeted about it with a graphical illustration from ESPN). The death overs might me the key aspect if the Indian batting doesn’t run away with the game by scoring 300 plus.
These two sides have played each other a hell of a lot of times over the recent past and would know the strengths and weaknesses of each other on the back of their hand. This is a game which might be decided on strategy as much as it would on nerves of playing the world cup final. If India wins, and it is still a big if despite the huge optimism of the Indian fans, India will become arguably the best team in ODIs as well (they are already the best in tests). I would derive a huge amount of pleasure from it apart from the huge euphoria which would overwhelm on winning the world cup. It would be symbolic of the fact that India has become a cricket super power in more ways than one. Maybe it is just me but I can’t think of that many symbolisms if Sri Lanka wins. Right from 1975, the world cup winning team has been symbolic of some aspects. The most disappointing might be the false dawn after Pakistan won in 1992. It did show what it could achieve if it played to potential though.
Maybe a symbolism isn’t needed or it would emerge later like it did with the Australians of 1987. Who cares, winning the Cricket World Cup is big enough in itself. Win it India!
